Homework 2 Week 3

Chapter 5, "The End of the Oil Age" discusses our newfound dependence upon oil and how we may be forcefully weened off of it soon. The prophetic geologist M. King Hubbert predicted our declining oil levels in the U.S. 20 years before it happened. He was ridiculed for his theory because the U.S. in the 50's, when he did his work, was at it's highest in number of producing oil wells. It was only in the 70's, when our pools of oil began to run out, and we became increasingly dependent upon OPEC countries, that it was realized the M. King Hubbert was correct. While the U.S. has largely reached it's peak levels, the world remains semi-oil abundant. Statistics on when we'll reach peak oil worldwide vary for numerous reasons, but the USGS survey says it won't be until around 2020. However, this survey was misleading and flawed, so peak oil may in fact occur much sooner. It seems we're facing a complicated and enigmatic future, with scientists divided among their groups as to what will happen. We may have to forgo past experience, and try something new.

Unfortunately, it seems the future isn't too bright for oil's best competitor, natural gas. It's production will likely soon fall, because it's difficult to find enough reservoirs to meet the supply. It's also concerning because natural gas is a more regional energy source than oil. It's more difficult to transport long distances, and loses it potency. The soon decline of natural gas production in concerning also because from it are derived all of our nitrogen fertilizers. Without a large supply of those, we'll either need to relearn how to farm, or starve.

Chapter 6, "The Collapse of Agriculture" discusses how agriculture has declined in the past 50 years, and how agribusiness has thrived. As it stands, we've farmed almost all the land we can on this planet. We've been depleting the planet's soils, and grown crops hundreds of times faster than normally. We've created such a surplus of food that the population has boomed. This is an issue because the world's filling up, and we're running out of fuel. Without oil and natural gas, we wouldn't be able to grow our crops, and transport the resulting products worldwide. Our fossil fuels aren't as abundant as they once were, and we'll need to figure out a new way to farm soon. U.S. population is estimated to double by 2050, meaning that we'd no longer have enough acreage to crop the crops we'd need to sustain our population. It's estimated that the U.S. will need to lose a third of it's population if it's to be able to survive sustainably. Hopefully this doesn't result in another black plague...

Agriculture faces many problems in the near future. Firstly, diesel is becoming increasingly scarce as we make more and more tractors and other diesel powered heavy farm equipment. This is making us increasingly vulnerable. The more we rely upon oil now, the harder the transition off of it will be. We need to start changing asap in hopes that consequences won't be dire.

The U.S., and the world should learn from North Korea that running out of oil has very real consequences. Not only do oil prices go up when your supply is limited, but you know that there's going to be less and less supply. It also showed us that without natural gas, we're also basically out of luck. Coal makes an ok substitute for some aspects of oil, like supplying electricity, but it fails in others, like powering automobiles. Furthermore, we're entirely reliant upon natural gas for nitrogen fertilizers, and without that not even coal can make up the difference.

Was there enough coverage of the damage done to North Korea that it was taken seriously? Have there been changes made since that?

Is it plausible that we'll convert our existing crops into smaller amounts of more varied crops, or reform smaller farms?